{
 "board": "daily",
 "season": "2026-27",
 "title": "The dynamic board uses each metric's ratings as published on the morning of each game day, saved before that day's first game. Metrics that do not update daily, or have published nothing new that morning, are computed using their most recent ratings.",
 "scored_through": "2026-10-31",
 "first_game": "2026-10-31",
 "games": 6,
 "games_per_team": {
  "min": 1,
  "max": 1
 },
 "updated_utc": "2026-11-01T16:21:01+00:00",
 "primary_test": "net_rmse",
 "net_error_shown": true,
 "early": true,
 "net_error_note": "Early: 1 game per team. A few games decide each team's margin, so the ranges overlap and the floor rows score about the same as the metrics until every team has played 20.",
 "record_note": "W-L: each game counts as a win when the team the metric rates higher won (no home-court edge, the same for every metric)",
 "rules": {
  "min_minutes": 0.0,
  "replacement": -2.0
 },
 "confidence": 0.9,
 "resamples": 2000,
 "harness_sha256": "cfde3f922e88298361c51bf293b959e8a93626fde51fe4db2c7bedc2f5d11b4a",
 "repo_commit": "7b2b48698bd14b72db9e15e9fcb62694796b0398",
 "snapshot": {
  "files": "live/snapshots/daily/<date>.json",
  "latest": "2026-11-01",
  "latest_saved_at_utc": "2026-11-01T08:59:00+00:00",
  "days": [
   "2026-10-31",
   "2026-11-01"
  ],
  "excluded_games": [
   {
    "game_id": "0022600147",
    "date": "2026-10-31",
    "reason": "no value saved before tip-off: arc, bpm_bbref, danny, darko, epm, lebron, loki, openrapm, pulse, xpm, xrapm"
   }
  ]
 },
 "labels": {
  "pulled": "new ratings saved from the maker's site that morning",
  "carried": "no new ratings published, so the most recent saved ratings are used",
  "empty": "the ratings could not be saved that morning, so that day's games are left out for every metric"
 },
 "tests": {
  "margin_r2": "Game R²: the share of the variation in final game margins that the predicted margins explain",
  "winpct_r": "Win % r: the correlation between team ratings and team winning percentage",
  "net_rmse": "Net error: the average miss, in points per 100 possessions, between team ratings and opponent-adjusted team margins"
 },
 "metrics": [
  {
   "id": "pulse",
   "name": "Pulse",
   "maker": "CourtSignal",
   "url": "https://courtsignal.net/ratings",
   "ours": false,
   "label": "pulled",
   "source": "courtsignal.net Current PULSE (dynamic prior filter (daily)), row 2026-10-31",
   "sha256": "00aaba48b542b50b4bfa8cd1d240cecff0e0a40fbe53fdce7b963880b8479836",
   "players": 660,
   "as_of": "2026-10-31",
   "coverage": 1.0,
   "record": {
    "w": 5,
    "l": 1
   },
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.3786,
     "interval": [
      0.0087,
      1.0
     ],
     "rank": [
      1,
      11
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.4681,
     "interval": [
      0.067,
      0.7452
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      6
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 8.5676,
     "interval": [
      6.8365,
      10.0404
     ],
     "rank": [
      1,
      4
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "arc",
   "name": "ARC Live",
   "maker": "LUMA Basketball Research",
   "url": "https://lumahoops.org/arc",
   "ours": true,
   "label": "pulled",
   "source": "lumahoops.org ARC Live (arc-live/2027/2026-10-25.json)",
   "sha256": "bad77fe7faa60aed7a5fade0b86b1a923d2f2a6d2f9839475accab2e6cf5e735",
   "players": 631,
   "as_of": "2026-10-25",
   "coverage": 0.9865,
   "record": {
    "w": 5,
    "l": 1
   },
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.4232,
     "interval": [
      0.0322,
      1.0
     ],
     "rank": [
      1,
      9
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.5619,
     "interval": [
      0.2478,
      0.7815
     ],
     "rank": [
      1,
      5
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 8.7966,
     "interval": [
      6.7693,
      10.4408
     ],
     "rank": [
      1,
      8
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "lebron",
   "name": "LEBRON",
   "maker": "BBall Index",
   "url": "https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-database/",
   "ours": false,
   "label": "carried",
   "source": "no 2026-27 LEBRON published yet; 2025-26 final (export saved 2026-10-03)",
   "sha256": "2ea8ed7dd55cf21f9922d0badc036c3505059478ce81481b6cbb340c5feac0a1",
   "players": 582,
   "as_of": "2026-04-12",
   "coverage": 0.8904,
   "record": {
    "w": 4,
    "l": 2
   },
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.1983,
     "interval": [
      0.0059,
      1.0
     ],
     "rank": [
      1,
      10
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.4103,
     "interval": [
      -0.067,
      0.744
     ],
     "rank": [
      1,
      9
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.0283,
     "interval": [
      7.0244,
      10.9086
     ],
     "rank": [
      1,
      9
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "darko",
   "name": "DARKO",
   "maker": "Kostya Medvedovsky",
   "url": "https://www.darko.app/",
   "ours": false,
   "label": "pulled",
   "source": "darko.app as of 2026-11-01 (data through 2026-10-30)",
   "sha256": "9fec0b77c8c2f1a3a54f2757f0817ed949044b9be227b9712b1df869901792f1",
   "players": 525,
   "as_of": "2026-10-30",
   "coverage": 1.0,
   "record": {
    "w": 5,
    "l": 1
   },
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.3182,
     "interval": [
      0.011,
      1.0
     ],
     "rank": [
      1,
      10
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.3898,
     "interval": [
      -0.0729,
      0.726
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      10
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.0401,
     "interval": [
      6.8073,
      10.9357
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      7
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "loki",
   "name": "LOKI",
   "maker": "LUMA Basketball Research",
   "url": "https://lumahoops.org/loki",
   "ours": true,
   "label": "pulled",
   "source": "LOKI weekly solve made 2026-11-01, games through 2026-10-25 (private; fingerprint only)",
   "sha256": "0c59364bf4cae44eacb856808b255171ff4be27ba32a7fa099ad280674440591",
   "players": 1029,
   "as_of": "2026-11-01",
   "coverage": 0.8963,
   "record": {
    "w": 5,
    "l": 1
   },
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.2206,
     "interval": [
      0.0113,
      1.0
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      9
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.4304,
     "interval": [
      -0.0245,
      0.7462
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      9
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.3065,
     "interval": [
      7.3561,
      10.9621
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      10
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "xpm",
   "name": "xPM",
   "maker": "George Berry, VORP.app",
   "url": "https://vorp.app",
   "ours": false,
   "label": "carried",
   "source": "preseason value (VORP.app publishes a preseason forecast only)",
   "sha256": "5e62034575eab2348844508199e232e9709cd4051d607289ef15a8f175a6344a",
   "players": 608,
   "as_of": "preseason",
   "coverage": 1.0,
   "record": {
    "w": 3,
    "l": 3
   },
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.1512,
     "interval": [
      0.0038,
      1.0
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      10
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.3418,
     "interval": [
      -0.1525,
      0.6436
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      11
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.4397,
     "interval": [
      7.5823,
      11.0434
     ],
     "rank": [
      3,
      10
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "epm",
   "name": "EPM",
   "maker": "Taylor Snarr, Dunks & Threes",
   "url": "https://dunksandthrees.com/epm",
   "ours": false,
   "label": "pulled",
   "source": "dunksandthrees.com/epm (current expected EPM, Aayo's subscription)",
   "sha256": "51d48fb293c64d6e043fb46d7eb8486ab3f4c2720cd9735338759d8a7edd584c",
   "players": 528,
   "as_of": "2026-11-01",
   "coverage": 1.0,
   "record": {
    "w": 5,
    "l": 1
   },
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.1768,
     "interval": [
      0.0051,
      1.0
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      11
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.3709,
     "interval": [
      -0.0761,
      0.6619
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      10
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.5803,
     "interval": [
      7.1189,
      11.7892
     ],
     "rank": [
      1,
      10
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "danny",
   "name": "EPM projection (Danny Harlan)",
   "maker": "Danny Harlan",
   "url": "https://github.com/dannyharlan05/nba-epm-projections",
   "ours": false,
   "label": "carried",
   "source": "preseason value (Danny's preseason projection; in-season updates not yet included)",
   "sha256": "23b7d01a01dabe11f3d36560fb2826bdd06b10c5c3d126413d04ab15503d8623",
   "players": 679,
   "as_of": "preseason",
   "coverage": 0.8963,
   "record": {
    "w": 5,
    "l": 1
   },
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.121,
     "interval": [
      0.0038,
      1.0
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      10
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.4235,
     "interval": [
      -0.0055,
      0.7126
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      7
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.6289,
     "interval": [
      7.7151,
      11.2765
     ],
     "rank": [
      5,
      10
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "bpm_bbref",
   "name": "BPM (Basketball-Reference)",
   "maker": "Daniel Myers / Basketball-Reference",
   "url": "https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2027_advanced.html",
   "ours": false,
   "label": "carried",
   "source": "preseason value (2025-26 final; 2026-27 season-to-date BPM not used yet)",
   "sha256": "8fec8554831ace7c0d623022f9d7b7835f90699e663d9f5d4e2ed2d478bed2c8",
   "players": 581,
   "as_of": "preseason",
   "coverage": 0.8904,
   "record": {
    "w": 4,
    "l": 2
   },
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.1332,
     "interval": [
      0.0041,
      1.0
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      11
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.3066,
     "interval": [
      -0.2068,
      0.652
     ],
     "rank": [
      3,
      11
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.7023,
     "interval": [
      7.8229,
      11.36
     ],
     "rank": [
      3,
      10
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "openrapm",
   "name": "OpenRAPM",
   "maker": "Nathan Walker",
   "url": "https://openrapm.com/",
   "ours": false,
   "label": "pulled",
   "source": "bbstats/openrapm ratings.json at 651fe8d (Daily update: 2027 through the games of 2026-10-30); 2026-27 value, else 2025-26",
   "sha256": "35ca7fff58cc82565b0e5771a6587aa28b790a9c01a302a6c0832710ed645bcd",
   "players": 590,
   "as_of": "2026-10-31",
   "coverage": 0.9885,
   "record": {
    "w": 4,
    "l": 2
   },
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.0,
     "interval": [
      0.0002,
      1.0
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      11
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.0697,
     "interval": [
      -0.4989,
      0.4786
     ],
     "rank": [
      5,
      11
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.9768,
     "interval": [
      7.318,
      12.2867
     ],
     "rank": [
      1,
      11
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "xrapm",
   "name": "xRAPM",
   "maker": "Jeremias Engelmann",
   "url": "https://xrapm.com/",
   "ours": false,
   "label": "carried",
   "source": "xrapm.com still shows the 2025-26 final (metrics updated 2026-04-12)",
   "sha256": "1af65024cd22eccad3379d60c349c8aaec123cef227173c3cbe3e4a73307c328",
   "players": 582,
   "as_of": "2026-04-12",
   "coverage": 0.8904,
   "record": {
    "w": 3,
    "l": 3
   },
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.0711,
     "interval": [
      0.0014,
      1.0
     ],
     "rank": [
      2,
      11
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.3007,
     "interval": [
      -0.2079,
      0.6494
     ],
     "rank": [
      5,
      11
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 10.4621,
     "interval": [
      8.2812,
      12.4835
     ],
     "rank": [
      6,
      11
     ]
    }
   }
  }
 ],
 "reference": [
  {
   "id": "ceiling_rapm_same_season",
   "name": "Same-season RAPM (ceiling)",
   "description": "Plain RAPM fit on this season's games so far: it has seen the games it is computed on.",
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.7664,
     "interval": [
      0.6561,
      1.0
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.623,
     "interval": [
      0.2687,
      0.8916
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 8.6923,
     "interval": [
      6.4797,
      10.5714
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "consensus",
   "name": "Consensus of all metrics",
   "description": "Each player's average across the ranked metrics that rate him (equal weights).",
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.2278,
     "interval": [
      0.0076,
      1.0
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.4157,
     "interval": [
      -0.0138,
      0.6986
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.1018,
     "interval": [
      7.1859,
      10.7766
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "rapm_last_season",
   "name": "Last season's RAPM, no prior",
   "description": "Plain RAPM fit on 2025-26 only, carried forward.",
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.1732,
     "interval": [
      0.003,
      1.0
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.3012,
     "interval": [
      -0.2094,
      0.6421
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.2792,
     "interval": [
      7.3693,
      10.9258
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "baseline_last_team",
   "name": "Last season's team (floor)",
   "description": "Each player = his main team's opponent-adjusted margin last season / 5.",
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.0529,
     "interval": [
      0.0009,
      1.0
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.1654,
     "interval": [
      -0.3716,
      0.5729
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.8512,
     "interval": [
      7.7072,
      11.7833
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "baseline_zero",
   "name": "Everyone 0 (floor)",
   "description": "Every player 0; only the -2.0 for low-minute players separates teams.",
   "tests": {
    "margin_r2": {
     "value": 0.0,
     "interval": [
      0.0,
      0.0
     ]
    },
    "winpct_r": {
     "value": 0.0,
     "interval": [
      0.0,
      0.0
     ]
    },
    "net_rmse": {
     "value": 9.5315,
     "interval": [
      7.1673,
      11.5391
     ]
    }
   }
  }
 ],
 "pairs": [
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "arc",
   "b": "bpm_bbref",
   "diff": 0.29,
   "interval": [
    -0.1584,
    0.6368
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "arc",
   "b": "danny",
   "diff": 0.3022,
   "interval": [
    -0.185,
    0.4004
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "arc",
   "b": "darko",
   "diff": 0.1049,
   "interval": [
    -0.0723,
    0.3012
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "arc",
   "b": "epm",
   "diff": 0.2464,
   "interval": [
    -0.0209,
    0.527
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "arc",
   "b": "lebron",
   "diff": 0.2249,
   "interval": [
    -0.3191,
    0.4168
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "arc",
   "b": "loki",
   "diff": 0.2026,
   "interval": [
    -0.1249,
    0.2844
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "arc",
   "b": "openrapm",
   "diff": 0.4232,
   "interval": [
    -0.1447,
    0.7742
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "arc",
   "b": "pulse",
   "diff": 0.0445,
   "interval": [
    -0.0557,
    0.322
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "arc",
   "b": "xpm",
   "diff": 0.272,
   "interval": [
    -0.1937,
    0.554
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "arc",
   "b": "xrapm",
   "diff": 0.3521,
   "interval": [
    -0.1703,
    0.6608
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "bpm_bbref",
   "b": "danny",
   "diff": 0.0122,
   "interval": [
    -0.4312,
    0.1934
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "bpm_bbref",
   "b": "darko",
   "diff": -0.185,
   "interval": [
    -0.552,
    0.2006
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "bpm_bbref",
   "b": "epm",
   "diff": -0.0436,
   "interval": [
    -0.4492,
    0.3507
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "bpm_bbref",
   "b": "lebron",
   "diff": -0.0651,
   "interval": [
    -0.4829,
    0.1586
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "bpm_bbref",
   "b": "loki",
   "diff": -0.0874,
   "interval": [
    -0.5485,
    0.1143
   ],
   "separated": false
  },
  {
   "test": "margin_r2",
   "a": "bpm_bbref",
   "b": "openrapm",
   "diff": 0.1332,
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